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Runtime: 9:39
0:00 Tesla U.S. Sales Slow, Others Up Strong
1:26 UAW Still Losing Members
2:07 GM, CATL To Build North American Battery Plant
3:58 BYD, Geely & Chery Develop Long-Range PHEVs
6:00 Panasonic Sells Auto Business
7:00 Auto Industry Now 3rd Largest Buyer of Microchips
7:59 Bridgestone Reveals New Lunar Tire
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This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.
TESLA U.S. SALES SLOW, OTHERS UP STRONG
It looks like EV sales in the U.S. could really pick up steam in the second half of the year. Cox Automotive forecasts that Americans will buy 1.7 million EVs this year, up from 1.1 million last year. That would be a 54.5% increase and would give EVs a 10.8% market share. But first quarter EV sales were not at that rate. They were up 15%. Interestingly, Cox Automotive says the slowdown in electric sales growth is mostly a Tesla slowdown. Its sales were only up 3.3% in the first quarter, whereas not counting Tesla, EV sales were up 33%. Cox also says used EV sales shot up a strong 70% in the first quarter compared to a year ago. Though the numbers are small, used EVs only accounted for 1.8% of all used car sales, Cox says one reason they’re growing is they qualify for a $4,000 tax credit for many car buyers. Plus, it says the Manheim auction houses now offer a battery health monitor service, called Battery Health, that can tell buyers how good the battery is. And that’s giving more people the confidence to buy a used EV.
UAW STILL LOSING MEMBERS
Despite all the media attention that UAW president Shawn Fain has been able to generate for his union, the UAW continues to lose membership. It now has 370,239 members, down 3.3%, despite having signed up 10,000 new members last year, meaning it’s losing members faster than it can sign up new ones. Maybe it can start turning that around by organizing the non-union automakers operating in the U.S. In three weeks, the UAW will hold a vote at Volkswagen’s assembly plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee to see if the workers there will join.
GM, CATL TO BUILD NORTH AMERICAN BATTERY PLANT
Ford created an uproar when it signed a deal with CATL to build EV batteries at a new plant in Michigan. Some American politicians are criticizing the deal, saying the Chinese involvement could threaten U.S. security. But reports out of China say that General Motors wants to do the same kind of deal. GM would build the plant and own all the equipment, but it would license the technology from CATL to make LFP batteries. And CATL employees would help GM get the plant up to line speed. It could be built in the U.S. or Mexico and is targeted to start production in 2027. The reason they want LFP batteries is because they’re up to one-third cheaper to manufacture than NMC batteries. And the reason GM and Ford would turn to a Chinese battery company is because Japanese and Korean battery makers aren’t mass producing LFP batteries yet.
BYD, GEELY & CHERY DEVELOP LONG-RANGE PHEVs
The newest plug-in hybrids about to hit the Chinese market are claiming some really impressive ranges. Both Geely and BYD say they have new PHEV systems that can travel 2000 kilometers or 1242 miles on a full charge and a full tank of gas. And one way they’re hitting those figures is with really efficient engines. Geely is using an engine with a thermal efficiency of 46%, which we think might be the best in the world. Both systems should be out this year, but their ability to achieve those ranges will depend on the size of vehicle they’re put into. And the Chinese test cycle more heavily favors slower urban driving, so there’s about a 35% difference between China’s CLTC test and EPA figures. That would drop those range figures to about 1300 kilometers or 807 miles, which is still pretty impressive. But another Chinese automaker is out to prove that it’s possible to go that far today in a PHEV. Chery is livestreaming two of its plug-in models as they try to drive the 2000 kilometers. CarNewsChina reports they’ve already gone over 1,200 kilometers or 745 miles and should wrap up later today. The vehicles are Fulwin A8 Pro models, which won’t officially launch in China until April. But if you’re wondering if it has a big battery and gas tank, it doesn’t. The battery pack is 18.3 kWh and the gas tank is 60 liters or about 15.8 gallons. Chery is not the first automaker to livestream a vehicle’s so-called feats-of-strength. NIO did the same when it wanted to show that its EV, the ET7, could go 1000 kilometers or 620 miles on a single charge. And Ford partnered with an adventure traveler and YouTuber to drive the Explorer EV around the world. So, we wouldn’t be surprised to see more of these kinds of promotions.
PANASONIC SELLS AUTO BUSINESS
Panasonic made a couple of major announcements. It’s selling its entire automotive business, called Panasonic Automotive Systems, to U.S. private equity firm Apollo Global Management. The unit accounts for around 15% of Panasonic’s sales and it mainly focuses on infotainment systems and other interior components. The value of the transaction is just over $2 billion. The deal is expected to close by the end of Q1 next year. But Panasonic isn’t completely severing ties with its auto business. It will take a 20% stake in the new parent company that will operate the unit and they’ll maintain a strategic partnership. Panasonic also announced that its energy division called Panasonic Energy has signed a deal with Mazda to supply it with cylindrical lithium-ion battery cells. But that’s all we know for now, the companies say more details will be shared at a later date.
AUTO INDUSTRY NOW 3RD LARGEST BUYER OF MICROCHIPS
With vehicles becoming more advanced and more EV models hitting the market, automakers are buying more semiconductor chips. According to a survey by World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, the automotive industry passed the consumer electronics and industrial sectors to become the third largest buyers of chips behind computer and communications companies. Automakers and suppliers accounted for 17% of chip purchases in 2023, 3% higher than the year before. According to the Semiconductor Industry Association, today’s vehicles have between 1,000 and 3,500 chips. And S&P Mobility says that the value of chips equipped in each new vehicle was $500 in 2020 and will rise to $1,400 by 2028. And the auto industry’s share of the semiconductor business is expected to continue to grow as it adopts more advanced chips, like silicon carbide.
BRIDGESTONE REVEALS NEW LUNAR TIRE
Bridgestone revealed a new lunar rover tire that it will display at the Space Symposium in Colorado next month. The company previously developed a lunar tire prototype but as you can see the new one is much different. It looks similar to non-pneumatic tire concepts Bridgestone has developed for cars and bicycles, what it calls “Air Free” but it’s made from metal, instead of rubber or plastic. Bridgestone says the new tire’s design offers higher durability and an improved ability to traverse surfaces compared to the previous lunar tire. As some of you know, Toyota is developing a lunar rover and we think there’s a good chance it will use these tires.
But that brings us to the end of today’s show. Thanks for making Autoline a part of your day and I hope you have a great weekend.
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Tesla has had quality problems for years. I’m surprised they are still in business. Other companies with those problems would have.
The claimed 2000 km range of the Corolla size Chery Fulwin A8 Pro is impressive, but with a 15.8 gallon gas tank, a garden variety Corolla hybrid should easily go 1500-1600 km on a tank, if you hold the speed to 60 mph or so.
About “[Tesla] sales were only up 3.3% in the first quarter”, this is very timely. Monday Tesla will release their Q1 production and sales numbers. As long as EV growth is positive, “dragging down” seems a stretch. For example, 3% of 100,000 cars is 3,000 but 30% of 1,000 cars is 300.
Percentages without numbers is a common math semantic trick to shade what is going on. So to add some facts and data, world wide, not just USA, Tesla sold 1.8 m in 2023. In the USA, 655 k. Looking forward to Q1 numbers.
That NIO et7 sure is a good looking vehicle! IMHO, it might not look out of place if it had a leaping Jaguar emblem, based on that brand’s current design language and styling. Yet, reports are that Jaguar is going in a different direction and headed farther upmarket.
GM and Ford building a CATL plant, doesn’t seem like a bad idea, aside from the politics. The OEMs would own the plant, the tooling, equipment and use there workers to manufacture the batteries, as they would only license the tech from the battery from the Chinese CATL. I don’t see how it would put either of the two OEMs in harms way of the Chinese government, getting ahold of sensitive data on the US government or the automakers and the employees? Since the tech is licensed, the automakers, could still develop the own best case battery chemistry and when the agreement in a few years expires, use the equipment to build their own batteries!
IMHO, while Tesla may still be arguably the best EV manufacturer, one of the reason they selling may be slowing, could be due how little the styling of the vehicles have been updated. With newer product coming to market, or will soon be on sell, perhaps buyers are hoping off or purchasing vehicles from these other makers?
We’ll know more when we get the Tesla’s global production and sales reports, but they may have expanded too much, too quickly. They are getting a lot more competition in EVs, and Tesla cars keep getting even worse, as they delete the turn signal stalk. They still have the best public charging network, though, and will probably continue to for a long time to come. Maybe they need a styling refresh, but VW did well for about 40 years with the same styling of the Beetle. To me, the Model S still looks just fine, even after ~12 years. I think the 3 and Y could use some decoration of the front end, like a Tesla “T” logo or something.
Regarding the Key Bridge replacement, is there any talk of replacing the bridge with a tunnel? There are other tunnels in the Baltimore area, and they aren’t vulnerable to ship strikes.
Kit, they don’t usually allow hazardous materials to pass through the tunnels but will allow them over the bridges, so most likely will be another bridge in it’s place.
Thx, Ziggy. I remember from ~50 years ago the signs saying no propane tanks larger than a certain size at the entrance to the tunnels.
I found this, about the current restrictions for the tunnels:
“The MDTA says vehicles carrying bottled propane gas over 10 pounds per container (maximum of 10 containers), bulk gasoline, explosives, significant amounts of radioactive materials, and other hazardous materials are prohibited from using the Fort McHenry Tunnel (I-95) or the Baltimore Harbor Tunnel (I-895).”
Today’s EV propaganda from the “blog of the automotive industry” using percentages deceptively just as @Bob Wilson pointed out. Sounds like a huge boost in EV market share but it’s really a small part of overall sales despite all the rebates and evangelism. Nevermind that Fisker is about to implode along with the big plans of all the Big 3. Each of which are doing massive layoffs to try to stop the bleeding. 400 Stellantis engineers right out the door via zoom call! No bias here, right?
Besides, if/when the US allows Chinese EV producers into the market you must realize that they cannot be undersold. The Chinese government directly subsidizes these companies’ losses. How do you think Hwawei dominates in the telecom industry outside the US? They buy the market by selling their products for less than it costs to make them because their government wants that global market domination. Only legislation can keep that from happening.
Anyway, carry on. Still looking for that elusive roadworthy Nissan Leaf.
DailyDriver, Huawei dominates the global telecom equipment market because of their home market, but are a close third in the rest of the world, after Nokia and Ericsson, in spite of US bans, because they make good stuff.
Kit, I have a family member in the fiber to home telecom space for large municipalities, foreign governments, and utilities who regularly competes with Huawei. Huawei wins most deals because they can sell equipment below manufacture cost of all their competitors due to their Chinese government backing. And that’s whether you’re manufacturing equipment in China, Vietnam, or Mexico., which are basically the only countries with skills to do such products (beyond the US but labor and facilities here are too expensive.) The only possible edge is offering backend service deals because customer support is Huawei’s weakness. But for most governmental entities in South America , the non-oil rich Middle East and the former Soviet block, price trumps all.
The same concerns arise about the Chinese EV’s right? Yes they’re cheap but how long will it run before things start breaking.