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Runtime: 11:46
0:00 EU Auto Industry in Trouble
0:38 France Could Lose 50% Of Supplier Jobs
0:56 Continental Readies to Spin Off Auto Parts
1:21 Italy Says 2035 ICE Ban Could Destroy EU Industrial Base
1:45 Mercedes Gives Up on Denza Brand in China
2:37 Chinese OEMs Move into Vietnam, Dubai & Philippines
3:38 Toyota Refreshes Sienna Minivan
4:40 EV Batteries Degrade 1.8%/Year
5:15 75% Of EV Batteries Could Use Child Labor Mining
6:19 Tesla Semi Uses 1.6 kWh/Mile
7:17 Plunging Nickel Prices Threaten LFP
8:09 BMW, Ford, Honda Team Up for Bi-Directional Charging
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This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.
EU AUTO INDUSTRY IN TROUBLE
We start out today in Europe, where the auto industry is going through the beginning stages of a massive disruption. New car sales in Europe never really recovered from the Covid pandemic and are running at 2 million units below where they were before. The transition to electric vehicles is going much slower than anticipated. And Chinese automakers are making strong inroads in an already crowded market. Volkswagen’s CFO has warned that the company only has 1 to 2 years to get things turned around.
FRANCE COULD LOSE 50% OF SUPPLIER JOBS
In France, the Federation of Vehicle Equipment Industries, which represents automotive suppliers, warns that they’ll lose half of their jobs before the decade is over. And if that starts to happen, we think you’re going to see a big backlash against Chinese imported cars.
CONTINENTAL READIES TO SPIN OFF AUTO PARTS
In Germany, Continental AG, one of the world’s largest suppliers, is getting closer to spinning off its traditional auto parts business. The new stand-alone company has 100,000 employees and sales over €20 billion a year, and could have a market cap of €4.3 billion, but it’s likely Conti had to do a spin-off because it couldn’t find anyone to buy the business.
ITALY SAYS 2035 ICE BAN COULD DESTROY EU INDUSTRIAL BASE
In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni says that the ban on ICE cars starting in 2035 could destroy the EU’s industrial base. She says the ban is “self-destructive.” We say, if auto plants start closing and people start losing their jobs there will be enormous political pressure to back off the ICE ban.
MERCEDES GIVES UP ON DENZA BRAND IN CHINA
And in a related move, Mercedes-Benz gave up on its joint venture with BYD to sell luxury cars in China under the Denza brand. It started selling vehicles in 2014, but by 2021 Mercedes cut its share to 10%. And now it’s selling that off because the Denza brand has not seen much success even though the latest versions use BYDs BEV and PHEV tech and feature Mercedes styling and were sold in Mercedes showrooms. That should be a warning to all foreign automakers in China. Even using the latest Chinese tech, Mercedes was unable to move the metal. While all foreign automakers are scrambling to improve their lineups in China, it looks like they’ll never get back to the sales and market share they enjoyed just four years ago.
CHINESE OEMS MOVE INTO VIETNAM, DUBAI & PHILIPPINES
Chinese automakers continue to expand around the globe. Great Wall Motor signed a memorandum of understanding with a group in Vietnam to form a partnership to assemble CKD or Completely Knocked Down vehicles in the country. Production is expected to start next year. Next up, we move over to Dubai where BYD opened a new showroom, its second, in the city. And it plans to open new outlets in three more cities in the United Arab Emirates by the end of the year. And lastly, GAC Group’s Aion brand opened its first showroom in Manila. Aion says it also has partnerships with dealers in three other cities in the Philippines.
TOYOTA REFRESHES SIENNA MINIVAN
All 2025 model year vehicles sold in the U.S. are required to have a rear seat reminder system and the refreshed Sienna minivan will be the first Toyota vehicle in the world to get it. The system uses radar to scan the second and third row for movement after the van is shut off. If it does detect movement, warnings will progress over time from triggering the hazard lights and sounding the door lock chime all the way up to attempting an automated phone call from Toyota Safety. Additional changes to the Sienna include new wheel designs, fresh colors and patterns in areas like the seats and new materials for other parts of the van like the center console. That center console also features a new built-in vacuum and storage bin that has a cooling function. Lastly, new dual 12.3 inch displays are standard on some trims, while available on others. Pricing starts just under $40-grand, not including destination charges, and sales kick off this fall.
EV BATTERIES DEGRADE 1.8%/YEAR
Modern EV batteries will outlast the car they’re in. On top of that, a study by Geotab says the batteries will also retain much of their original life. It looked at the battery health of 5,000 private and fleet EVs and found the average modern battery degrades at 1.8% a year, while the top EVs only go down by 1% a year. And that average is 22% better than five years ago. At the current rate the average battery will still have 64% of its original life after 20 years.
75% OF EV BATTERIES COULD USE CHILD LABOR MINING
But the supply chain for lithium-ion batteries is rife with human rights abuses according to a new report from Infyos. It says its research found that 75% of lithium-ion battery suppliers have supply chains that use one or more companies accused of forced or child labor abuses. The abuses occur most frequently at the raw-material mining and refining stages, which makes it harder for companies purchasing batteries to identify the risks. Infyos used AI to help sift through 20,000 data points from government and NGO reports, news articles and social media sources between December 2022 and June of this year. It says most of the worst cases of alleged abuse are in China. And with the U.S. and Europe passing legislation recently that prevents the import of goods with forced labor, it could mean that battery supplies are at risk of being banned since China controls most of the raw materials needed to make EV batteries.
TESLA SEMI USES 1.6 KWH/MILE
Some estimates put Tesla’s current fleet of Semis around 100 units, but it hopes to hit a production run rate of 50,000 trucks a year by 2026. A big part of that will hinge on a new Semi plant that Tesla is building next to its current facility in Nevada, which could be open by the end of next year. And while its current fleet is small, the head of the Semi program says they’ve racked up 7.5 million miles and at least one truck has nearly 250,000 miles on its odometer. He added that they’re averaging 1.6 kWh per mile and have seen a 95% uptime. Based on that and the ability to travel 1,000 miles in a day, Tesla says the semi can be a 1-to-1 replacement for a diesel truck. If the charging infrastructure is adequate enough in the area where the truck would be operating, we don’t think that Tesla is too far off.
PLUNGING NICKEL PRICES THREATEN LFP
NMC or nickel-manganese-cobalt batteries for EVs are gaining more popularity in China thanks to tumbling raw material prices. Several years ago, automakers turned to LFP or lithium-iron phosphate batteries because they were cheaper. But now automakers like Xiaomi, Li Auto and Zeekr are using what’s called medium-nickel, high-voltage batteries, which use less nickel than high-nickel batteries, but still offer high energy density and range. LG Energy says these batteries can cut costs by up to 10%, thanks to technical improvements and lower raw material prices. The share of medium-nickel production of NMC batteries in China has jumped to 60% from 40% last year. And for now, that’s slowed the growth of the LFP market.
BMW, FORD, HONDA TEAM UP FOR BI-DIRECTIONAL CHARGING
Ever hear of a company called Chargescape? Well, you’re going to. That’s the name of an EV charging company put together by Ford, BMW and Honda. But it’s not for public chargers. It’s for using bidirectional charging to make the grid more efficient. Cars will automatically charge when demand for electricity is low and will feed electricity back into the grid when demand is high. And car owners can earn money by selling that electricity back into the grid. They can also specify at what time of day they want their car fully charged, so it’s always ready when they need it. Many EV critics say the grid isn’t ready for electric vehicles, but Chargescape will actually make the grid more robust.
Be sure to tune in to Autoline After Hours tomorrow when Bob Lutz will be on the show. Now 92 years old, he’s still sharp as a tack, and has great insight into what’s going on in today’s auto industry. So don’t miss it. Tomorrow’s show could be a classic.
But that’s a wrap for today. Thanks for tuning in.
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Child labour is still a problem in mining and refining. But I don’t think it’s restricted to just EV battery materials. I think those that exploit children do it as much as possible. So why are we hearing only about child labour with EV batteries? A bias in news? Never!
On another note, no one should give any credibility to social media reports about anything. Hasn’t the last 10 years taught us anything?
Although child labor is a problem, in the book ” The Locust Effect” talking about the role of policing and slavery the problem although illegal everywhere, slavery is still a big problem although easily solved with a white envelope to the appropriate policeman or politician.
The 50,000 truck potential capacity in the new Tesla plant is impressive. However, they will need a lot of orders to make that a positive financial endeavor. A 1,000 mile daily range will only be possible with their Mega Chargers, which consume incredible amounts of electricity. They will need quite a number of these Mega Chargers if they are selling anywhere near 50,000 trucks per year. With the cost of installing a Mega Charger, and the complexity of getting the local approval for one (because they will consume so much electricity), getting enough of them installed will be a big challenge. I think large trucking companies are going to be much more enthusiastic about purchasing or leasing fuel cell semi trucks due to their lower cost, much smaller onboard battery, and short refueling time.
Actually I think social media has allowed people to see first-hand accounts and things the public media doesn’t want to cover. I think there is about as much credibility with either one, so you need to be skeptical and consider the source. But when a social media broadcasts a congressional hearing or an event live where it’s very obvious the situation is not quite as the media would like you to believe there is an advantage to being informed than misinformed.
Italy should probably not wait until jobs are lost and factories are shutting down to make changes. Trends can easily tell you if a 2035 ICE ban is realistic and if it needs to be extended or not. I can understand throwing out an aggressive target, but when you can see years in advance that you’ll miss that target adjustments need to be made to protect jobs and the industry.
Child Labor- China is the worst. I’m shocked! (not really) Again another reason why it’s hard for other countries to compete with a country that doesn’t enforce laws against child labor. Should we enforce our expectations on other countries? I guess it depends on the specifics behind the child labor. It might just be a situation where in the US a child anyone under 16 has restricted hours and no one under 18 can be in a hazardous position. We hear child labor and think a 12-year-old is out in the mines. But maybe it is allowing a 17-year-old to work in a mine. It’s a different culture and although we don’t allow it should it be allowed elsewhere? Not saying I’m in favor it’s an actual question.
I think a more accurate quote would be: ‘On another note, no one should give any credibility to Mainstream Media News reports about anything. Hasn’t the last 10 years taught us anything?’
If it wasn’t for social media we would know only a fraction of what is actually going on. (Isn’t Autoline Daily indeed a social media based information program?). Granted, as with anything, one should always try to verify information they receive from any source.
At 1.6 kWh per mile, my home retail rate is $0.12/kWh so that would be $0.192 / mi.
$19.20/100 miles – fuel cost
This would materially reduce inflation by lower transportation costs. There would still be labor and insurance costs. However, add automated driver assistance systems, a the safety and health of drivers would improve.
1.6 kWh per mile is lower than I would have guessed. That’s only 3-4 time what an empty Ford Lightning does.
I’m astonished the old trope of battery minerals and child labor still has traction. The problem persists, but constitutes only a small part of production (Chinese companies indeed generally don’t care about sourcing).
And common sense would put this fable to rest. The machines used in large-scale, ie. industrial scale mining are what actually enable the enormous quantities of minerals now required to be extracted. Manual digging isn’t called ‘artisanal’ for nothing.
And incidentally, the efficiency of shipborne transportation makes it possible to refine the stuff in China – almost all battery factories rely on this. Same goes for iron ore out of Australia, IIRC.
EV BATTERIES DEGRADE 1.8%/YEAR “At the current rate the average battery will still have 64% of its original life after 20 years.”: No, that would be 69.5% since 0.982 (being ((100-1.8)/100) equals 0.982) to the tenth power is 0.695
Any way to get some new footage? I’ve seen that green ship more times than the number of Chinese EVs it’s loading.