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Runtime: 10:08
0:00 IEA Lowers U.S. EV Sales Forecast
0:54 EVs Won’t Displace as Much Oil as Forecast
1:20 Panasonic Drops Plans For 3rd U.S EV Battery Plant
1:37 Subaru Trailseeker EV Could Get Axed
2:22 Vermont Pauses ZEV Mandate
3:11 GM Suspends H2 Plant in Detroit
3:58 Trump EPA To Get Rid Of “Stop/Start”
5:12 GM Also Developing LMR EV Battery
5:51 Kia’s Wheelchair Accessible PV5 Van
6:30 Bosch Emphasizes U.S. Investments
7:37 Toyota Drops “4x” From bZ4x, Intros BEV C-HR
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IEA LOWERS U.S. EV SALES FORECAST
Just two years ago the IEA, or International Energy Agency, forecasted that sales of EVs in the U.S. would hit 50% market share by 2030. Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicted they’d hit 48%. Well that was then. With the Trump Administration and Republican allies looking to eliminate all EV subsidies, the IEA now says EVs and hybrids will only hit 20% share by the end of the decade. Bloomberg NEF says EVs will hit 30%. Even though that’s a pretty big drop, automakers would probably be happy with a 30% share, which would be over 5 million EVs a year, or 5x where they’re currently running.
EVs WON’T DISPLACE AS MUCH OIL AS FORECAST
The IEA also lowered its forecast for how much oil that EVs will displace by the end of the decade. Last year it said EVs would cut oil consumption by 6 million barrels a day. Now, because EV sales in the U.S. and Europe are growing slower than expected, it says that they’ll cut oil consumption by 5.4 million barrels. Currently, the world uses about 100 million barrels a day.
PANASONIC DROPS PLANS FOR 3RD U.S EV BATTERY PLANT
The IEA isn’t the only one lowering its EV forecast. Panasonic is mothballing plans to build a third EV battery plant in the U.S. The CEO of Panasonic says he’s “relieved” they didn’t move forward on that third plant.
SUBARU TRAILSEEKER EV COULD GET AXED
And it sure looks like Subaru is going to slow down its investment in EVs. In fact, the battery electric Trailseeker SUV that it unveiled a month ago at the New York auto show may not even make it to the U.S. market now. It was supposed to go on sale next year. But Subaru faces a double-whammy. Not only are sales of EVs growing far slower than it expected, the Trailseeker, which would be made in Japan, would face 25% tariffs. If it can’t sell the Trailseeker in the U.S., Subaru doesn’t have enough sales volume in the rest of the world to justify putting it into production. The American market accounts for about 80% of Subaru’s global sales.
VERMONT PAUSES ZEV MANDATE
As we reported earlier in the week, there’s a showdown brewing over California’s stricter zero-emission sales mandate that goes into effect this year. They require that 35% of 2026 model-year vehicle sales must be zero-emission. And it increases 8% a year until 2035 when it becomes 100%. Vermont is one of 11 other states that have adopted the rules but its Governor, Phil Scott, just paused the requirements because its EV sales are only around 10%. Car dealers have also warned that the mandate will limit the kinds of vehicles they sell, which also factored into Vermont’s decision. Maryland has paused the mandate as well until the 2028 model year and we wouldn’t be surprised to see more states do the same.
GM SUSPENDS H2 PLANT IN DETROIT
And speaking of scaling back environmental plans, General Motors is suspending a $55 million project with Piston Automotive to open a hydrogen fuel cell plant in Detroit. The automaker and supplier formed the deal last September but GM says it has paused work at the plant and will decide whether to move forward in the coming weeks. It’s not clear why GM is pausing the project and would only say that it has not been entirely canceled.
TRUMP EPA TO GET RID OF “STOP/START”
According to the head of the EPA “everybody hates” stop/start technology so the agency is going to “fix it.” Stop/start shuts the engine off anytime the vehicle comes or is coming to a complete stop and then starts it back up again once you let off the brake pedal. In some vehicles that process can be unpredictable and jarring, so some people shut it off. While the EPA doesn’t mandate the technology, it did start handing out emission credits to automakers who installed it in 2014. But by 2016 only 9% of vehicles had stop/start. So, the EPA ramped up the credits in 2017. From what we can find, the average credit is 3 grams of CO2 per mile per vehicle, which we estimate is an increase of about 1 MPG. That adds up fast when you apply it to each vehicle over their normal service life. And by 2022 60% of vehicles had stop/start technology. But we think the EPA is going to drop the credit, so it will be interesting to see how that impacts the rollout of stop/start technology.
GM ALSO DEVELOPING LMR EV BATTERY
At the end of April, Ford said it’s piloting what it calls Lithium Manganese Rich or LMR cells at its battery center in Michigan. These batteries are safer, more energy dense and cost less than other types of batteries and Ford hopes to have them in vehicles before the end of the decade. Now GM announced that it’s working with LG on a similar cell chemistry that will come out around the same time as Ford. GM and LG are developing prismatic LMR cells and aim to commercialize production by 2028. They will also make the batteries in Michigan, so we wonder why the two automakers don’t just partner up on LMR cells?
KIA’S WHEELCHAIR ACCESSIBLE PV5 VAN
Kia is showing off a wheelchair accessible version of its PV5 electric van. The model features a side-entry system that allows wheelchair users to board from the sidewalk. It also includes a third-row tip-up seat that allows caregivers to assist wheelchair passengers from the side. Other highlights include a 300-kg or 660-lb-rated wheelchair entry ramp and a specially developed wheelchair belt fastening system. The van will be built in South Korea but it will initially launch in the UK and then expand to other markets.
BOSCH EMPHASIZES U.S. INVESTMENTS
Bosch is making it perfectly clear that it’s investing heavily in the U.S. market. The giant German supplier invested $2 billion in capex in the U.S. so far this decade and plans to make another $6 billion in acquisitions. With President Trump heavily criticizing the EU, it’s a smart move for European companies to point out how heavily invested they are in the United States. Here’s Bosch’s story: it has been operating in the U.S. since 1906, employs 20,000 people and has 15 manufacturing facilities in 6 different states. Bosch is involved in multiple industries, including consumer goods, industrial technology, building and energy technologies, and of course, automotive where it’s involved in powertrains, ADAS and all the other little pieces of technology and components that go along with that. And we mention this because it shows the delicate dance that foreign suppliers have to go through now to try and protect their business in the U.S.
TOYOTA DROPS “4X” FROM BZ4X, INTROS BEV C-HR
Toyota is launching an all-new EV version of the C-HR that’s scheduled to hit U.S. showrooms sometime next year. It’s built on the same platform as the bZ, more on that in a moment, and comes standard with all-wheel drive. Total system output is 338 horsepower and Toyota estimates it will do 0-60 MPH, which is similar to 0-100 km/h, in around 5 seconds. The model is equipped with a nearly 75 kWh battery pack, which is expected to return around 290 miles or 466 kilometers of range. Other highlights include a native NACS charging port, a standard 14-inch display screen and a host of driver assistance technologies. Now let’s go back to the bZ, which has dropped the 4x from its name for the 2026 model year. While still available in front-wheel drive, the new bZ gets most of the same hardware as the C-HR EV. The same 338 horsepower AWD system, which is a 50% increase over the previous model. The same NACS charging port and the same 14-inch display screen. It also gets a 25% range bump up to 314 miles and a smaller, roughly 58 kWh battery will be available on some FWD models. The new bZ will come out sometime in the second half of this year.
But that brings us to the end of today’s show. Thanks for making Autoline a part of your day.
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Unless BEV tech and prices (and especially the cost of making them to the domestics!) radically improve, even 20% share in 2030 is too optimistic. Domestix should count their lucky stars that it is 20% or less, as they are bleeding tens of billions every year from their EV divisions, but only FORD publishes its losses, and they are growing, not even less with each year.
If 80% of Subarus are sent here, why isn’t it making all of them here? No brainer, and very likely to happen. GREAT for the US Economy, great for unemployment, great for less govt expenses and MORE revenues!
in other words, another terrible day for Pathological Trump Haters.
And as always, a look at the markets, and amazingly, even after Monday’s EPIC increases and Tuesday’s significant ones (1-2% up), they are up again, Nasdaq up 0.72% as of now.
Subaru actually makes a lot of the cars it sells in the US here. Big Indiana factory.
Nasdaq up 0.4% as of now. S&P 500 up 0.04.
Subaru has been building their higher volume vehicles in Lafayette, Indiana for years. They now build Outback, Crosstrek, and Ascent in Lafayette. The high volume model still from Japan is Forester. The plant opened with joint ownership by Subaru and Isuzu, and Subaru bought out Isuzu years ago.
I’ve had two non-hybrid cars with stop/start, both with a fairly conveniently located switch to disable it. Both defaulted to stop/start on when starting the car. I’d frequently switch between s/s on and off, depending on the situation. Where I often drive in Indiana, with 4 way stops about every half mile, I disable it so it won’t shut off for a half second at every stop sign. If I’m at a red light that won’t change for 5 minutes, I want the engine to turn off.
I see no reason not to have stop/start, as long as today’s starters are robust enough to last the life of the car. I think it should stay on or off, though, the same as you had it at the end of a trip, rather than defaulting to s/s on.
Kit,
I do the exact same thing with my stop/start. A lot of my miles driven is highway where you very infrequently stop. So I tend to leave it on because it is not active anyhow. If I am in a city environment or heavy traffic I turn it off. My preference would be to have it off all the time because I am manually negating the whole point of stop/start. There is an aftermarket OBD2 port plug in for my car that permanently turns it off. It also turns off a few other things that the vast majority of owners hate on that vehicle….like cylinder deactivation. I have not yet bought that for my car but plan to do so eventually.
I like cylinder deactivation, at least on smallish cars with big engines, like Corvettes. I’m sure it significantly improves mpg under some conditions. Even with the tall gearing, I doubt if a C7 or C8 would get 30+ mpg at 65 mph without cylinder deactivation but they do with it. It’s surprising how much time it’s in 4 cylinder, even at highway speed. Also, you barely feel it, if at all.
The down side is the complexity, and I guess there have been some reliability issues with GM’s, and maybe other companies’ systems.
Our C7 gets 32 mpg on eco mode however once a few years back in a hail storm in Montana had to switch to Touring mode since swinging side to side in Eco mode landed at nearest gas station on fumes Blue Sky Country means no gas stations
No mention as the government takes the subsidies off BEVs will they take the subsidies off coal, gas, oil? Will we be using water fueled vehicles with real Horsepower?
Guess I replaced my Tesla battery ($9,000) and baseline rework the 152,000 mi, 6 year old front suspension ($2,500) just in time. Roughly $12,000 for a comfortable, well used EV.
My home solar roof came online April 30th and is sized for all my local BMW i3-REx and Tesla miles out to a radius of 50 or 100 miles. In other words, my first 100 to 200 miles going out of town and later returning are solar powered, free miles as I typically put about 20,000 miles a year between my cars.
Bob, was your battery replaced by Tesla, and did the $9K include labor?
We have a small add-on for our 2022 Outback that fixes the start/stop system.Stays off or stays on, something I really like. About $100 and hides under the rear view mirror/camera area. The Subaru engine is not a smooth or fast start stopper. Very annoying.
I expect when the new 2026 Outback comes to Canada it will be a Japanese manufactured vehicle; another win for the American administration.
My start stoppers have been a Mini and a Cayman. Both start quickly, and generally smoothly, but start/stop puts a lot of extra wear on the starter. My Toyota hybrids do a lot of starting and stopping, but the motor/generator is geared to the ICE full time, so no pinions engaging ring gears, etc.
Bob, currently recharging our Pacifica Hybrid with solar also. Free rides around town!
Subaru doesn’t make the Solterra-based for the new Trailseeker, Toyota does. Has Toyota changed EV/battery investment? Nope! Neither has GM.
The manual Cayman stops in neutral and with the clutch pedal up and foot on the brake. The engine starts when you depress the clutch pedal, and is idling normally be the time you have the clutch disengaged to put the car in gear. I suspect jerkiness of some stop/start systems has to do with what the automatic transmission does after the engine starts.
Kit, there shouldn’t be any jerkiness attributed to the auto trans with idle stop/start, as they use a pump attached to the trans that maintains line pressure to keep the clutches engaged. I’ve driven a couple of ATX cars with the system and ridden in others, and there was no jerkiness on restart/takeoff.
https://gearsmagazine.com/magazine/start-stop-systems-to-assist-or-not-to-assist-that-is-the-question/
ArtG, interesting. I figured with torque converter automatics, there might be something you’d feel when it goes from no forward push to a little forward push after the engine starts. With my Mini’s DCT, no clutch is engaged when stopped with foot on the brake, so that wouldn’t be the case.
ArtG, I just read the article. Apparently the author really hates stop/start. With cars I’ve had with it, my main objection is that it could wear out the starter prematurely, requiring an expensive repair.
Was asked, “was your battery replaced by Tesla, and did the $9K include labor?” Yes and sales taxes on the parts too. From the invoice notes:
“Technician inspected the vehicle and verified the high voltage battery was experiencing a steady drain. The cause was determined to be a need for battery replacement, as indicated by the customer request. The high voltage battery was replaced, along with the cabin heater fuse and DC input busbar to ensure proper functonality. After the replacement, the technician confirmed that the battery drain issue was resolved.”
This raises a question about the resettable fuses in Teslas. They could fail into a resistor and lead to excessive battery drain. How would we know?
Bob Wilson, thanks for the info. I don’t understand the connection between high battery drain, fuses, and busbars, but if everything is fixed, that’s what counts.
Starters on stop-start vehicles are usually more heavy duty but the ring gear on the flex plate is the same and it would be expensive to replace mainly due to labor costs. As a Stellantis tech I have not seen a lot of issues with the starters or ring gears,just the 2 batteries that are usually required.
Mark, do they use two regular 12v batteries? My cars with stop/start have just had one battery, but both are 2 liter turbo fours, not 5.7 liter V8s or something like that.
Yes, the real penalty with stop/start is the specialized battery that operates the system. No one mentions that when you buy the vehicle and I have not seen it mentioned in any of the sales literature, just the savings it supposedly produces for you. My girlfriend recently had to have the stop/start battery replaced on her Grand Cherokee. It cost her $200 at a rural Chrysler dealership (low labor rates compared to city dealers). They told her that she had to have it replaced because it would start to degrade the vehicle’s main 12 volt battery. I don’t know if that is true, but she was less than pleased to have to shell out that much money for a specialized battery and labor. She had about 70k on the clock when the battery died. I have 52k on my Grand Cherokee, so I guess I have that treat to look forward to. With that expense, I am pretty sure that consumed all of the savings the s/s was supposed to have generated.
Given the Trump administration’s goal of balancing imports and exports to eliminate the trade deficit, its interesting that they are adamant about killing the EV conversion. Of course, the donations from the oil companies comes into play, but given that mineral imports are the USA’s fourth biggest import category by value (right after vehicles at #3), promoting EVs would help to reduce the amount of oil we have to import to our refineries and help to balance the trade deficit. I guess some motivations are stronger than others.
And, what’s up with that cut line that goes through the charging port door on the Toyota BZ? Toyota really has some odd styling cues these days. The BZ must stand for “busy” design.