AD #4258 – Ford’s New Unicastings Slash EV Repair Costs; High Oil Prices Drive Asia’s Surge in EV Demand; Ford and Stellantis Future Product Plans

This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.

IRAN CONFLICT THREATENS EUROPEAN AUTO SUPPLY CHAIN
If the war in Iran drags on beyond two months, Europe’s auto industry could face critical supply shortages. According to a new study from the Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria, supplies of semiconductors and battery cells are at most risk. That’s because around one-third of helium needed for chip production comes from Qatar. Other risks for Europe’s auto industry include price hikes for energy, transport and raw materials. 

HIGH OIL PRICES DRIVE ASIA’S SURGE IN EV DEMAND
Meanwhile over in Asia, with the price of oil spiking there’s growing interest in electric vehicles. A BYD dealership in Manila says it has seen a month’s worth of orders in just two weeks. A VinFast dealer in Hanoi had to hire more staff and is selling double the amount of EVs it sold each week on average last year. A spokesman that represents Thailand’s auto industry says it previously expected EV sales to be soft this year but if oil prices remain high, it expects “a significant increase in EV demand.” And in Laos, as a reaction to the spike in oil prices, the government has slashed EV registration and service fees by 30%, and raised them by the same amount for gas-powered vehicles.

    

NHTSA CLOSES TESLA PEDAL PROBE BUT EYES FSD
Tesla got good and bad news from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration yesterday. First the good. The agency says it closed a petition seeking a recall of more than 2 million Tesla vehicles over pedal misapplication claims. The petition, which was filed in 2023, claims Tesla’s were at risk of pedal misapplication because of its regenerative braking or “one-pedal driving.” It called for a recall of all Tesla’s built since 2013 or nearly 2.3 million vehicles, and proposed a safety update that would require drivers to apply the brake pedal before stopping. But NHTSA rejected the petition, citing only a handful of crashes related to the issue as well as data that showed the vehicle responded properly to driver inputs. And it says there isn’t any evidence the petition’s safety proposal would prevent any incidents. But while Tesla got good news on that front, NHTSA also announced it opened an engineering analysis in its investigation into 3.2 million vehicles with FSD. And that’s the step the agency usually takes before it seeks a recall.

FORD AND STELLANTIS FUTURE PRODUCT PRODUCTION PLANS
We’ve got some future product intel to report. Autoforecast Solutions says there’s a new Ford Maverick and Bronco Sport coming in 2028 and they’ll remain in production until 2036. Both those vehicles sit on Ford’s C2 platform and are built at its assembly plant in Hermosillo, Mexico. Also, AFS reports that Stellantis will redesign the Dodge Durango onto the Stella Large platform at the end of 2030. It’s scheduled to stay in production at the Jefferson North assembly plant in Detroit until 2037. The Jeep Renegade and Commander will also get redesigned and go into production in Penambuco, Brazil in 2028. The Commander will sit on Stella’s EMP2 platform, or Efficient Modular Platform 2, which has been used since 2013. The Renegade will move to the Stella Small platform. Both models are scheduled to be built there until 2034.

FORD’S NEW UNICASTINGS AIM TO SLASH EV REPAIR COSTS
Ford is developing its new Universal EV platform so the vehicles that come off of it are cheaper to own over time compared to its current lineup. The two large castings it calls unicastings, similar to Tesla’s gigacastings, not only replace 144 structural parts, will help transform the company’s manufacturing process and reduce overall costs, they’ll be cheaper to repair when involved in the most common types of accidents. According to Automotive News, the castings were designed from the very beginning to be modular for repairability, including pre-defined cut zones for sections that are most likely to be damaged in low and moderate speed collisions. Those areas can then be removed and a new part is glued, riveted and/or bolted in. This does require special tooling and equipment and Ford will also have to invest in training. But Tesla and several Chinese automakers use the same method and insurance claims show that vehicles with large castings are cheaper to repair when involved in these more common types of accidents compared to vehicles built traditionally. The key is to design for repair right from the start and it sounds like Ford did that.

         

LASER-MADE ANODES COULD BOOST LITHIUM-ION BATTERY LIFE
But the battery is still the most expensive part of any EV, which is why we’ve seen so much activity around cheaper alternatives like iron- or manganese-rich chemistries and especially solid-state. However, advancements continue to be made with more traditional lithium-ion batteries that could keep them around even longer. Instead of more traditional graphite anodes, scientists in Israel created a way to make silicon-graphene anodes with lasers, which offer more energy capacity and in early tests of small cells they retained over 98% capacity after more than 2,000 charge and discharge cycles. Now we’ll have to see if the process is easy enough to scale for mass production.

XPENG NEARS PROFITABILITY DESPITE RECENT STOCK MARKET DIP
Xpeng reported its year-end earnings and while the numbers don’t look all that great at first glance, the company is showing dramatic improvement. XPeng sold 429,000 cars last year, up 126%. It brought in over $11 billion of revenue, up nearly 88%. But it posted an operating loss of just over $400 million, and a net loss of $165 million. Even so, the company posted a net profit of nearly $55 million in the fourth quarter and looks like it may have turned the corner financially. However, analysts and investors were clearly expecting better news. The Autoline Stock Index shows that XPeng shares were down 5% on the Hong Kong exchange today.

AUTOLINE POLL RESULTS
Earlier this week we put out a poll for our YouTube and Patreon members and the answers are intriguing. We asked “If you were the CEO of a legacy automaker today, where would you place your biggest ‘survival bet’ for the next 24 months?”

• Number one, would you double down on Hybrids & PHEVs to fund the future?
• Number two, would you forget luxury and race to build a profitable $25K EV?
• Number three, would you focus on SDVs & AI to create new subscription revenue?
• Or, number four, would you maximize profits from existing truck/SUV lines and delay new tech? 

Well, Autoline members know what they would do. 72% of you said to double down on hybrids and PHEVs. 14% said to go after $25,000 EVs, 12% said to maximize profits from existing trucks and SUVs, and only 2% would prioritize software defined vehicles and AI. I think our member Dave summed it up the best. Why make this either-or, he asked? And I’m paraphrasing here, but he said you have to do all of this.

Thanks to all our members, we truly value your support. And if you’re not a member and would like to participate in these polls, get first crack at Autoline Exclusives videos before anyone else, or even tune in to my and John’s live Q&A sessions, all it takes is a few dollars a month.

And that brings an end to this week’s reports on the auto industry. Have a great weekend and we’ll see right back here again on Monday.