AD #4287 – Automakers Expecting Big Tariff Refunds; A Tesla CyberCab in Michigan!?; VW Open to Sharing Excess Capacity w/ Chinese

This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.

AUTOMAKERS EXPECTING BIG TARIFF REFUNDS
Automakers are expecting big refunds after the Supreme Court ruled that some of President Trump’s tariffs were unconstitutional. GM announced that it expects $500 million in tariff relief, while Ford revealed it expects to get $1.3 billion. However, we don’t know for sure yet if they’ll get all that money. Companies are allowed to submit claims with the U.S. Customs and Border Patrol, which says businesses will receive tariff refunds for eligible claims within 60 to 90 days of their approval. But that also means those claims could be rejected. Even so, both GM and Ford raised their full-year guidance by $500 million.

FORD POSTS STRONG Q1
Speaking of Ford, it posted pretty strong Q1 results. While sales were down 4%, the company’s revenue shot up 6% to over $43 billion. Its adjusted EBIT came in at $3.5 billion, 3 and a half times higher than last year, and net profit was 5 times higher, hitting $2.5 billion. But despite raising its full-year guidance, Ford expects commodity costs to rise to $2 billion, a billion dollars higher than its previous forecast, mainly for higher aluminum costs related to that Novelis fire. And despite that refund, Ford still expects to pay $1 billion in tariffs this year, while GM expects to pay around $3 billion.

STELLANTIS TURNING THINGS AROUND
Stellantis CEO Antonio Filosa, who was appointed to the role less than a year ago, is starting to help turn the automaker around. Its global shipments in the first quarter were up 12% compared to a year ago, reaching 1.36 million units. That boosted revenue 6% to €38 billion. Its operating profit soared 194% to €960 million and it posted a net profit of €377 million compared to a net loss of €387 million in the first quarter of last year.

PORSCHE HAS ROUGH Q1
Meanwhile, Porsche had a rough Q1. The sports car maker sold just under 61,000 vehicles, down nearly 15% compared to a year ago. Its revenue dropped by 5% to €8.4 billion and its operating profit tumbled 22% to €595 million. The automaker’s profits took a hit because of U.S. tariffs and weak demand in China where sales fell 21%. But despite the volatility, Porsche is not lowering its full-year forecast.

VW GROUP DOWN AS A WHOLE
However, its performance was part of the reason the VW Group was down as a whole in Q1. Deliveries slipped 4% to just over 2 million units. That dragged revenue down 2.5% to a little over 75.5 billion euros. The company’s EBIT came in at 2.2 billion euros, down nearly 30% and its net profit fell over 14% to 2.4 billion euros. Results like these could put the Group in jeopardy of missing its sales target of about 9 million vehicles this year.

GM INVESTS MORE IN V8s & BIG TRUCKS
General Motors is making a big investment to boost production of gas-powered engines in North America. The automaker is pouring $1.4 billion into three U.S. plants and one Canadian plant that build engines, transmissions and metal castings. The investments will support its next-gen full-size trucks and SUVs and brings its total investment in the U.S. over the last 12 months to more than $6 billion.

VW OPEN TO SHARING EU PLANT CAPACITY WITH CHINESE
And speaking of production, Volkswagen’s Q1 results also highlight why it’s trying to cut total production capacity by 2 million units, from a high of about 12 million last year. That still leaves it a little extra capacity, so VW says it’s open to partnering with Chinese automakers to share unused capacity at its plants in Europe. The automaker has already slashed production in Europe by 1 million units and VW CEO Oliver Blume says sharing production would be a “clever solution” to fill that unused capacity and lower costs. VW isn’t the only European automaker looking to partner with Chinese companies to share plants. Stellantis is holding talks with Dongfeng and luxury maker Hongqi to build vehicles at its plants in Europe. And Chinese automaker Chery has expressed interest in partnering with a European OEM to share capacity. As we’ve said, by saving plants and jobs, Chinese companies will be welcomed with open arms by governments and unions, even though European automakers are deeply worried about losing more market share.

A TESLA CYBERCAB IN MICHIGAN?
Check out what I saw while grabbing lunch yesterday, a Tesla CyberCab. It looked like it had just pulled out of a Supercharger station in the parking lot and there was a driver controlling the vehicle, who kindly waved back as I grabbed a couple of pictures. But still not sure what a Tesla CyberCab was doing in Michigan.

TESLA GROWING UNSUPERVISED ROBOTAXI FLEET
Speaking of Tesla’s autonomy efforts, it’s slowly growing its fleet of unsupervised Robotaxis in Texas. According to new data from the Robotaxi Tracker, the company now has 25 vehicles operating in Austin, Dallas, and Houston without a human in either front seat. While that’s still well below Elon’s predictions, the numbers started going up just in the last few weeks, so we’ll have to see if this is a new trend.

           

TESLA SEMI PLANT STARTS PRODUCTION
Tesla also had another bit of good news. It announced that it started producing Semi trucks at its new 1.7-million-square-foot facility dedicated to the model that’s located near its Gigafactory in Nevada. Tesla is expected to gradually ramp up production and the site is designed to make up to 50,000 Semis a year.

Hey, check out a new series that we’re launching. It’s the AutoForecast Solutions Quarterly Update. EVery quarter we’ll sit down with Joe McCabe and Sam Fiorani of Autoforeast Solutions to get their analysis and insights on the major developments in the last quarter. If you want to get a better understanding of what’s going on in the industry, check out the AFS Quarterly Update.

AutoForecast Solutions Quarterly Update: Volatility is the New Normal

But that’s a wrap for today’s show. Thanks for making Autoline a part of your day.