AD #4388 – Mercedes Exempt from U.S. China Ban; Oil Prices Drop as Exports Recover; New NHTSA Rules Redefine Trucks and Cars

This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.

OIL PRICES DROP AS EXPORTS RECOVER
Could we see some relief at the gas pump with oil exports in key areas starting to recover? According to Goldman Sachs analysts, Persian Gulf oil exports are running at 23.3 million barrels a day in the week through September 28, which is about the same as their 2025 average. As a result, oil prices are starting to drop. December Brent crude futures fell nearly 1% to a little over $95 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate futures fell 0.6% to under $87 a barrel. Oil shipments are starting to recover because exports through the Strait of Hormuz are increasing.

NEW NHTSA RULES REDEFINE TRUCKS AND CARS
As we reported earlier this month, the Trump Administration is going to change the way that vehicles get classified as cars and trucks. And that’s going to make it more difficult for a number of automakers to meet fuel economy regulations, even though the Administration is loosening the CAFE standards. Starting in the 1970s, Congress made sure that trucks had easier fuel economy and emission regulations to meet because they had to carry or tow heavy loads. But these days almost every crossover and minivan is classified as a truck as automakers gamed the system to meet the easier regulations. Now, to be classified as a truck, a vehicle has to have a combined payload and towing capacity of 8,500 pounds. It also has to meet a number of off-road requirements. 

Approach angle: Not less than 28 degrees
Breakover angle: Not less than 14 degrees
Departure angle: Not less than 20 degrees
Running clearance: Not less than 20 centimeters (approx. 7.87 inches)

Today, 70% of the vehicles sold in the U.S. are classified as trucks and only 30% as passenger vehicles. The new regulations are going to flip that around. This will also lead to smaller crossovers and minivans being available because automakers will no longer have to bloat them up to qualify as trucks. 

GM REAFFIRMS LONG-TERM EV COMMITMENT
GM has been ridiculed in some circles for its heavy emphasis on EVs, but President Mark Reuss reaffirmed that the company is still committed to electric vehicles. He said GM is playing the long game on EVs, and added that switching strategies based on flip-flopping government regulations was simply too expensive to do. He said GM will go slower on EVs, but added that the whole world is moving that way and so GM is continuing to invest in EV platforms and LMR battery chemistry. 

LITHIUM PRICES PLUNGE IN CHINA
The slump in car sales in China is starting to have an impact on lithium prices, a key material for EV batteries. According to the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, the price of lithium has slumped from about $24,000 a ton at the start of September, to just under $18,000 a ton now or about a 25% decline. Like automakers, battery makers in China have built too much capacity compared to demand. To help address that, the government has suspended construction of new battery plants and placed a new consumption tax on lithium batteries, which were previously exempt.

       

FORD LAUNCHES USED COMMERCIAL VEHICLE PROGRAM
Ford is going after other company’s commercial business in the U.S. The automaker says it’s going to offer the industry’s first certified pre-owned program for class 1-7 commercial vehicles starting this October. That will include non-Ford vehicles, which go through a 139-point inspection and get limited coverage for 9-years/150,000 miles. The company offers the same inspection and coverage for its own used commercial vehicles or customers can choose from a higher tier that puts models from the Transit to the F-750 through a 172-point inspection and offers a 5-year/80,000-mile vehicle warranty and a 7-year/100,000-mile powertrain warranty. Ford will also offer financing, roadside assistance and mobile service. And we bet the 700 Ford Pro Commercial Vehicle Centers will happily welcome the extra business.

BMW MOVES 3 SERIES TO GERMANY
BMW is spending around 2 billion euros so it can move production of the 3 Series from Mexico to Germany. All versions are based on the company’s Neue Klasse architecture, but ICE models will be made in Dingolfing and EVs will be made in Munich. The move from Mexico to Germany was part of a long-term plan at BMW that will also see Mexico get the all-electric i3 and iX3 next year. But it couldn’t have come at a better time for BMW in the U.S. since Mexican-made models are slapped with a 27.5% tariff right now, while those from Europe are hit with a 15% import tax. We’re now getting a more complete picture of the 3 Series lineup as well. It’s coming out with a more basic version of the i3, which features a nearly 83 kWh battery pack, about 26 kWh smaller than the current top-line version, and the new M Performance version of the i3 will come out next year. ICE models, which feature very similar styling to the EV, will come with two variants of a turbo 4-cylinder engine and a 3.0L turbo 6-cylinder that makes nearly 440 horsepower. Both the gas and electric 3 Series go on sale in the U.S. in the first quarter of next year. Gas versions will start at just over $51,000, while the top-line i3 is nearly $63,000 with destination charges. 

   

MERCEDES EXEMPT FROM U.S. CHINA BAN
Good news for Mercedes. Senator Bernie Moreno says the automaker will not be included in a U.S. bill to ban Chinese vehicles. There was concern after the Senate Commerce Committee approved a bill in July that would ban companies with more than 15% Chinese ownership from selling vehicles in the country. Mercedes exceeds that threshold since the BAIC Group and Geely founder Li Shufu both hold a nearly 10% stake in the automaker. Senator Moreno also says there are discussions to ensure Volvo, which is majority owned by Geely, can continue selling vehicles in the U.S. But not all Geely-linked brands are as lucky. Moreno says Aston Martin and Lotus could be banned because of the law. The Senate is aiming to pass the bill this week and representatives in the House are looking to pass its version by the end of the year.

VOLKSWAGEN ATLAS GETS SIGNIFICANT REDESIGN
Nine years ago, Volkswagen launched the Atlas in the U.S. market and it’s finally coming out with the second generation of the SUV. This is no mild refresh, it’s a significant redesign. The Atlas migrates to VW’s MQB Evo platform, an updated version of the previous architecture. It gets all new sheet metal, an all-new interior and an improved powertrain. The sound system is noticeably better, the user interface is more intuitive, easier to use, and VW is rightfully bringing back a rotary volume knob. The base price is $44,145 which is $2,300 more than before, though VW says it added nearly $3,000 in standard equipment. We really weren’t that impressed with the first-generation Atlas, but the new one fixes all the problems we didn’t like on the old one. This is an important vehicle for VW in the U.S. market, its second best-selling model, behind the Tiguan. And we’ll have more info on it next week when VW’s embargo lifts. 

But bring us to the end of today’s show. Thanks for tuning in.