AD #4397 – Will Musk’s New Political Involvement Hurt Tesla Again?; Lincoln Getting Bronco-Based Model; XPeng Expects More Growth Outside of China

This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.

LITHIUM PRICES TAKE ANOTHER HIT
Will that deal to limit the number of Chinese hybrids going into to Europe really slow down those exports? Well, investors believe it will. Prices for lithium in China dropped 10% on the news. Lithium is used in the batteries for hybrids as well as BEVs. But prices have actually been in a free fall since late August. They’re down 33% in the last month and a half. Goldman Sachs predicts there will be a global surplus of lithium in the next two years, so we could see prices go even lower.

CHINA CAR SALES DOWN 29% IN SEPTEMBER
Here’s another reason lithium prices are dropping. Car sales in China are also in a free fall. Last month they were down 29% compared to a year ago. And September is usually one of the strongest sales months in China. Automakers sold 1.6 million vehicles and even sales of NEVs were down 17%. We thought new car sales in China would drop below U.S. sales based on early figures that we saw. It didn’t turn out that way, but the gap is getting small. At its peak, China sold about 1 million more new cars a month than the U.S. But last month it was about 270,000 units. And if things keep going like they’re going, the U.S. will outsell China.

          

BYD TAKES ITS NEWEST TECH TO EUROPE
BYD is bringing its latest technology to Europe. The automaker revealed that the Denza Z9 GT will be its first European model to come with its God’s Eye Level 2 hands-free driving system. It will be available starting next year and then is expected to expand to more models shortly after that. BYD also announced that it plans to install 100 flash chargers in Europe by the end of this year. The 1,500-kW stations are able to charge models with its second-gen Blade Battery from 10-70% in five minutes and 10-97% in nine minutes. By the first quarter of next year BYD will only have two models capable of flash charging. But the company plans to install 3,000 flash chargers in Europe by the end of next year, which means more models will get the technology.

WILL MUSK’S NEW POLITICAL INVOLVEMENT HURT TESLA AGAIN?
Elon Musk is once again getting heavily involved in politics, despite the potential harm it could do to Tesla. In 2024 and 2025, when he became a prominent figure and donor, first in the Trump campaign and then the administration, Tesla’s sales took a massive hit due to the unpopularity of Musk’s involvement. But after he left the administration and stepped away from the spotlight, Tesla’s sales started to recover. But that could be in jeopardy once again. According to FEC filings, Musk has spent at least $366 million on the midterm elections through the end of September, with $276 million given since July, making him the top donor for Republicans. Tesla’s customers are mostly left-leaning, so it will be interesting if his latest political involvement will lead to more backlash against Tesla.

XPENG EXPECTS BIG GROWTH IN EUROPE
Chinese automaker Xpeng has huge growth plans in Europe. It wants to sell 500,000 vehicles by the end of the decade. That would put it ahead of Ford and Opel, which sold 426,000 and 400,000 cars in Europe last year, respectively. But the half a million sales mark is pretty ambitious. Since it started selling in Europe in 2020, Xpeng has only delivered around 60,000 vehicles collectively, most of them this year and last. The company plans to meet its target by building more vehicles in Europe. It already has a partnership with Magna, which currently makes three XPeng models at its plant in Austria. A fourth model just completed trial production and Xpeng says it’s in talks with Magna to expand output even more. The automaker is also looking for other partners in Europe to produce vehicles. Overall, Xpeng is targeting 1 million sales globally by the end of the decade. And since it sold about 430,000 vehicles around the world last year that means it expects almost all of its growth to come from outside of China.

VW’S U.S. EV SALES DROP 90%
VW’s EV story is completely different in the U.S. and Europe right now. The brand sold a little under 80,000 vehicles in the U.S. in the third quarter, a drop of nearly 11% and EVs are a big reason for that fall. Volkswagen only sold about 1,400 electric vehicles from July through September, which was down 90% from last year. Since ID.4 production stopped in the U.S. to make way for more gas-powered SUVs, VW has been relying on remaining inventory of the ID.4 plus the ID. BUZZ for its EV sales in the region. That’s not working out very well. For the entire year, Volkswagen has sold just over 6,100 EVs in the U.S., a drop of 77%. And help won’t come until next year with the launch of the new ID. Tiguan.

VW GETS 150K ORDERS FOR NEW ENTRY-LEVEL EVs
Now over to Europe, where VW is already claiming success with its new entry-level lineup of EVs. It says it has received 150,000 orders for the CUPRA Raval, the Volkswagen ID. Polo and ID. Cross and the Škoda Epiq, which are all based on the same platform and as a group VW refers to them as The Electric Urban Car Family. While this is a promising start, the brands still need to turn those orders into sales, which will be key because they’re built at two different factories. So it’s not just one site getting all that scale.

JEEP EXPANDING EUROPEAN LINEUP TO 6 MODELS
Jeep basically sells two models in Europe, the Avenger and Compass. But by 2030 it wants to have up to six models. The brand will add the all-electric Recon, which will be joined by another new D-segment SUV in 2028. We would guess the Grand Cherokee fills that space. Jeep says it will also focus more on compact SUVs that offer a wide range of powertrains. That will include an all-new Renegade, which is coming by 2030.

LINCOLN GETTING BRONCO-BASED MODEL
We’ve got some great future product intel from our friends at Autoforecast Solutions. Lincoln is going to get its own version of the Bronco which will go into production in early 2030 and last through an 8-year product cycle. The Lincoln version of the Bronco will be built at the same Michigan Assembly plant as the Bronco, which both sit on the same platform as the Ford Ranger pickup which is also built at that Michigan plant.

But that brings us to the end of today’s show. Thanks for making Autoline a part of your day.