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Runtime: 11:02
0:00 Cyber Attack Shuts Down CDK’s Dealer Management System
0:48 Dealers Profit $4,500 Per Car
1:36 European Market Struggles in May
2:36 EV Sales Pick Up in the U.S.
3:58 Huawei Has Huge AV Team
5:02 XPeng Claims Best EV Aerodynamics
5:55 Lucid Files for ‘Ocean’ Trademark
6:21 Ford Bringing Back Dealer Credit Program
7:20 Tesla Batteries Easily Last 200K Miles
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This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.
CYBER ATTACK SHUTS DOWN CDK’s DEALER MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
Dealerships across the U.S. were hit with two cyberattacks yesterday. CDK Global, which provides back-end software for nearly 15,000 car dealers, was forced to shut down its dealer management system because of the attacks. The software is used for parts, service, accounting, finance and insurance and vehicle inventory. The first attack occurred yesterday morning and the second attack happened later in the day, which will shutdown the system at least through today. While dealers say it is a headache, they’ve been able to work around it by doing things the old-fashioned way and taking down information with a pencil and paper.
DEALERS Profit $4,500 PER CAR
Speaking of car dealers, they enjoyed their best years ever during the Covid pandemic and the chip shortage that followed. With inventory tight, they raised their prices significantly. Wall Street analyst John Murphy from Bank of America says before Covid, dealers typically had a gross profit of $1,500 to $2,000 per car, not including the luxury brands. During Covid that shot up to $6,000 per car. And now it stands at $4,500. Murphy says that if competition starts forcing prices to come down, most of the price cutting could come from dealers. But he says even though their profits have fallen from the Covid highs, they’re still twice as high as they were before.
EUROPEAN MARKET STRUGGLES IN MAY
The European car market has been struggling ever since the Covid pandemic. So far this year it looked like the market was getting some traction as sales grew. But last month, new car sales fell 3%, according to the ACEA, the automotive constructors association. But the real news is that sales of electric cars fell 12% and in Germany they fell 30%. PHEVs fell even more than pure electrics, down almost 15%. Gasoline cars were down 5.7% and diesels were down 11.4%. Diesels now have less than 13% market share. But there was one segment that was up. Hybrids. They were up a strong 16%, and now have 30% market share, up from 25% a year ago. That’s a trend we’re starting to see in many global markets. Hybrids are red hot right now.
EV SALES PICK UP IN THE U.S.
While EVs are slowing in Europe, they’re gaining ground in the U.S. S&P Global Mobility says EV sales shot up 14% in April after a poor first quarter. Automakers sold over 102,000 EVs in April, despite the fact that Tesla’s sales were down 17% and its market share in the EV segment dipped below 50% for the first time. Tesla had 46.3% of the EV segment in April compared to 63.8% the year before. S&P Global uses registration numbers to track Tesla sales since the company does not report them by region. But there is a several month delay in collecting the data, which is why we’re reporting April sales. If you take Tesla out of the equation, U.S. EV sales were up a whopping 60%, with big increases from the Mustang Mach E, Toyota bZ4X and Hyundai Ioniq 5.
HUAWEI HAS HUGE AV TEAM
A number of Chinese automakers are ramping up their self-driving efforts in the wake of Tesla starting to get approval to test FSD in the country. And now we may have a better idea of who has the best chance of competing. According to Gasgoo, tech company Huawei has a team of 7,000 people working on smart driving technology, which is way more than BYD who has 4,000 people, while XPeng has 3,000, NIO has 1,500 and Li Auto has 800. Several of those also beat out AV companies Waymo, who has about 2,700 workers, and GM Cruise, who has about 1,500. It looks like Huawei had a real advantage building its team, since it was already coming from the tech industry. And with almost double the people working on the tech, the automakers that have partnered with Huawei could have some of the most competitive systems. Those companies include Chery, Changan, GAC, BAIC and AITO.
XPENG CLAIMS BEST EV AERODYNAMICS
And speaking of Chinese automakers, XPeng claims its new EV, the Mona M03, has beat the Lucid Air as the most aerodynamic electric car. Although, just barely. The Air has a coefficient of drag of 0.197. The Mona M03 is said to be rated at 0.194. You may remember the solar car company Lightyear from a few years ago. It claimed its car had a coefficient of drag of 0.175, but it went bankrupt and pivoted to offering its solar charging system to other automakers. But other top performers that are on the market, include the Tesla Model S and Mercedes EQS, which both have a coefficient of drag just over 0.2.
LUCID FILES FOR ‘OCEAN’ TRADEMARK
But going back to companies that went bankrupt, it’s really hard coming up with a new car name, but Fisker’s demise might actually lead to the name ‘Ocean’ living on. Electrek reports that Lucid has filed for the trademark rights to Lucid Ocean in the U.S. Who knows if it will get the approval, but the names Air, Gravity and Ocean have a pretty nice ring to them.
FORD BRINGING BACK DEALER CREDIT PROGRAM
Ford is trying to encourage its dealers to sell inventory faster. It’s updating a program that will give dealers an upfront credit worth 1% of the MSRP on most vehicles. Currently, Ford reimburses floorplan interest charges based on how many days a vehicle stays on the lot, up to a maximum of 75 days. The current plan was enacted two years ago when inventory was low and cars weren’t staying on dealer lots very long, which meant the credits weren’t worth much. But now that inventory is piling up, Ford is making the change to help incentivize dealers to keep inventory moving. According to Cox Automotive, automakers in the U.S. have a 74-day supply of vehicles. But Ford and Lincoln have more than 100 days, so the company says it’s aiming to cut that down to 50-60 days supply.
We invite you to join us for Autoline After Hours later today. Some of the topics on the show include the meltdown of EV startups, the Detroit Three being advised to get out of China ASAP, what Tesla needs to do to kickstart sales, and whether those tariffs are going to stop the Chinese. Industry expert Jack Keebler, and Paul Eisenstein from headlight.news will join John and Gary and we welcome you to take it all in as well at 3PM EST.
TESLA BATTERIES EASILY LAST 200,000 MILES
Some car buyers are worried about purchasing an EV because they’re afraid they’ll have to replace an expensive battery. But Tesla says its owners don’t have to worry about that. It recently released data showing that the battery in the Long Range versions of the Model 3 and Y, only loses an average of 15% of its charge after 200,000 miles of driving. And the Model S and X are even better and only lose 12% of their capacity. Tesla points out that the average vehicle gets scrapped when it hits 200,000 miles in the U.S., so the battery will last the life of the vehicle. And besides, owners of ICE vehicles have to replace their engines often. According to the Production Engine Remanufacturers Association, 1.5 million engines are remanufactured a year in North America.
But that brings us to the end of today’s show. Thanks for making Autoline Daily a part of your day.
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When you worry about EV battery life, 200,000 miles is an honourable lifetime, often longer than a IC engine without repairs. It’s also worth remembering that a 200,000 mile engine has probably lost more than 15% power, and range. There is an afterlife for EV batteries, even after 30% loss, for fixed storage and grid balancing. No need to chop them up for recycling yet.
Coefficient of drag still needs to be multiplied by the frontal area of the car to get the total drag. A smaller car can still have lower drag, even with a higher cd.
All the Tesla 4680 battery packs are NOT repairable, and any new structural battery packs that Tesla makes will NOT be repairable. So, if your Tesla is out of warranty and your battery pack has a problem (battery cells or and any component inside) you will have to buy a new battery pack.
The biggest difference between battery life and engine life is cost. Even after swapping out an engine or doing a rebuild the cost is typically between 2-6K for an engine. Transmissions can be rebuilt or swapped out for 1500-3000. So combined you might have half the cost of a battery. I’ve run 3 vehicles over 200k 1) 1982 Pontiac 6000 280k 2) 1998 Dodge Ram 240k 3) 2012 Cadillac CTS 220k still driving it. Not one of the three had been rebuilt and were all running great except the Dodge started to burn about a half quart of oil every 3k miles and transmission started to take a second to shift after sitting for a few days. (needed new seals).
Dealers profit averaging $4500 meaning some made a lot more and some made less but makes a good case for the direct sales model, as who wouldn’t like to remove $4500 out of the price of a new vehicle for the service provided by a dealership? Makes me want to buy online.
The thing missing about these battery life claims, and cars normally being scrapped at 200K miles, is that those 200K miles are normally accrued over ~20 years, not 5-8 years like the EVs being mentioned.
IC engines don’t lose significant power or range, unless something is wrong with them. Friends’ 200K+ mile Pontiac Sunfire and Chrysler T&C both run fine, and get the same gas mileage they always did. The van has had one problem, common to its 3.6 engine, failure of a couple roller rocker arms at a little over 200K. It didn’t cost much to fix because he did it himself, but I suspect it might be a ~$1000 job at a dealership.
Anyway, lets see how these batteries do after 20 years, even with only 100K miles on the car. I’ve never had any similar batteries in other applications last even 10 years.
Kit,
I think you’ve hit the nail on the head with your comment about your experience with batteries. I agree with you. It’s normal for me to get a new iPhone battery in 3 years. Fortunately it costs about $80 at the Apple store. My power tools wear out their batteries in a couple of years. It’s cheaper to buy whole tool+battery combos rather than just batteries. But EV batteries are a different animal, I believe that, and my experience is proving me correct.
The safe thing is to not be an early adopter. Can’t help myself.
When your car engine breathes its last and needs replacement, no one goes to the dealer and buys a brand new replacement engine. There’s a whole industry that can provide a reliable used or reconditioned engine.
There is a growing business in repairing and reconditioning EV batteries, even Teslas. They need to be swapped by module, not individual cell, but that’s true of all EV batteries. Unless the car is in an accident, a battery problem usually is fixed with module replacement from a used battery, just like a replacement engine.
George Ricci, Gruber Battery says they can repair a cell or part of the 4680 pack. Have been for over a year now.
EV batteries are “managed” much better than batteries in most other applications. They are heated, cooled, “prepped,” and who knows what all. Also, they are generally not discharged at very high rates. Even in full throttle acceleration with the hot rod EVs, the cells are probably not being discharged at nearly the rate of the batteries powering RC airplanes. Those batteries are really being abused, charged full, sometime discharged almost completely, and discharged at high rates that get them hot to the touch. Those batteries don’t last very long.
I have never had an engine failure in all my years of driving. Not even once. The closest I came was spinning a rod bearing on a 3.0 Grand Am with 350,000 miles. The car still drove fine, just making quite the racket. The car was so rusty I decided not to fix it, but could have for a few hundred dollars and kept the party going. I had a Taurus last 300,000 miles and sold it due to a location move and it was still running just like the day it was new. Then there are my Toyotas with 300-400K each on them and still just like new. I will likely sell them because I am tired of looking at them LOL
Batteries fail due to time, not number of miles driven. Time never changes. Kit is correct, if you are achieving 200K over a 20 year life span, then your battery will be dead for the last 5 years of that and needing replacement as the average battery life span is 12-15 years. Just as everyone found out when the shipping container full of unsold and unused Tesla Roadsters was found. Every one of them had zero miles. Every one of them needed a battery replacement. Time is the enemy of BEVs, not miles.
Now, some of my other cars which are 40+ years old, well, there are zero EVs that are viable in that category without significant work and upgrades. For instance, I can repair a 1978 Chevrolet Malibu and keep it on the road running flawlessly for the next 20 years with some tape and bubble gum. I cannot keep a 1990 Geo Metro EV operating at all as there are zero replacement batteries and every one of them requires a replacement. So that vehicle will be scrapped just as all 12-15 year old EVs will be. The only viable old EV that can be kept going is the old Detroit Electric. That is only because it used old lead acid batteries which are still available and even cheaply upgradable from what they had back then. There will be exactly zero Model S plaid cars at classic car shows 40 years from now. None. They will not be able to drive there and replacements will either be prohibitively expensive or just simply not available as technology will have moved past them.
The Gruber site I found mentions battery repair only for Model S.
https://grubermotors.com/services/model-s-main-battery-pack-repair/
This isnt the same Gruber site:
https://youtu.be/H94vSQK8CIA?feature=shared
My Harley just stranded me this morning. I thought I’d enjoy a ride before the afternoon heat. Battery death. Heat kills batteries. But so does age… 7 years old.
Drew, from my experience, 7 years is good for a bike battery. I normally get 3-4 years from batteries in my KLR650. Maybe I get too cheap of batteries. At least they are easy to change.
While the Lucid Ocean holds promise, with their own solvency constantly under scrutiny, those of a superstitious nature, may feel a little uncomfortable naming a model the same as another that lead a competitor into bankruptcy! Also, what would it say about Lucid as a company? Are they laughing at and/or taking advantage of hardship of a fellow automaker? I mean, in that since, ‘the body isn’t even cold’, and the vulture has already swooped in! Lastly, what does it say to the customers who took a leap and trusted in the Fisker Ocean, only for it to fell, some I believe had to return their Ocean purchase, while others or now on their own with their regarding vehicle maintenance, and now here comes Lucid with a midsize SUV of their own called the Ocean! They may reason: ‘Is Lucid spitting in our face?’ In the long run it may not matter, if Lucid should do so and the vehicle is a major hit with buyers and a financial success. What might just as interesting, is if Lucid purchased and took the Fisker Ocean’s platform, gave it Lucid’s motors, software and battery pack, gave it some of the styling of the Air and Gravity and rebadged it the Lucid Ocean, that would be something to see! Lucid’s current midsize vehicle is, at least several years away, but to do this might move such an introduction 6 to 18 months. They’d save millions of dollars in development costs as well! Just a thought.
IMHO, the news/data on EV battery life should be taken as informational, with the intent of adding context. To reassure potential customers that this technology is not something that is fly-by-night, but can be trusted to last the expected lifespan of the ‘average’ vehicle owner. Even though the trend is that drivers are holding on to their vehicles longer, if that trend should continue to rise over the next twenty years, vehicles sold today should support that outcome. Most customers who get something brand new, especially if it’s leased may keep it two to three years, or a purchase of 4 to 5 years, maybe? When it’s sold to the next person, they may have it until it’s pay off or nearly so, then they trading it for something else. In that context, it seems that they are suggesting that today’s EVs, for the most part, could support that dynamic, with only a little reduction in battery life! Yet, if some goes in to purchase an EV with today’s tech, believing this will be the last vehicle they ever own for the next 20, 30 or 40 years, 15 years in, they will probably be sadly mistaken! As battery tech improves over the next several years, this out look may change, or it might not. That doesn’t mean that an EV is not worst or better then a ICE vehicle, over all, it may just not be the ideal vehicle for that personal interests, which is okay too!
wmb- I don’t think Fisker sold enough vehicles (or long enough) for it to really matter that Lucid uses the Ocean name. Fisker only delivered 4700 in 2023 and I haven’t been able to find a final number sold into 2024. My guess is it will become one of those obscure automotive stories where years down the road people will say, did you know that the Ocean was originally produced by a different defunct EV company first. The only people that might care will be the 10k Fisker owners.
Actually, it’s not the first time anyway.
Plymouth used the Suburban name in the late 40s-60s. Chevy and AMC used the Eagle name, AMC and Edsel used the Pacer name, Edsel and Ford both had Ranger’s, there was a Studebaker Daytona and Dodge Daytona, AMC and Dodge Spirit, Opel and Dodge Diplomat, Renault Encore and Buick Encore, Oldsmobile Fiesta and Ford Fiesta, Edsel Corsair and Lincoln Corsair.
wmb, the battery info presented is not for the ‘average’ vehicle owner. The ‘average vehicle is not driven 50K+ miles a year, as the vehicles for this battery data probably were. We may need to wait another 10-15 years to really know how long EV batteries last in ‘average’ use which starts out at 12-15K miles a year, and generally decreases as the vehicle ages.
No one seemed to re-use the Dictator name, which Studebaker used in the 1930s.