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Runtime: 11:07
0:00 Nissan Handed Junk Rating
0:33 Tesla to Invest in Nissan?
1:33 Rivian Cuts COGs $31,000/Vehicle
2:31 Tesla Warranty Costs Higher Than GM
3:42 BMW Neue Klasse To Use Cylindrical Batteries
4:55 Stella To Launch L3 Driving
5:56 EV Advocates Tell EU to Keep Strict CO2 Regs
6:43 Stella Stops Jeep Compass Plant in Canada
7:35 Renault’s Horse Worth €7.4 Billion
8:25 Autoline Poll on FCEVs
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NISSAN HANDED JUNK RATING
The bad news keeps piling up for Nissan. The automaker’s debt rating was just cut to junk status by Moody’s Ratings, which is its lowest investment grade. Moody’s downgraded Nissan because of weak profits and sales as well as the risks associated with its restructuring plan, which includes 9,000 job cuts and slashing global production by 20%.
TESLA TO INVEST IN NISSAN?
But despite Moody’s downgrading, Nissan’s stock shot up more than 9% today after a Financial Times report said that a high-level Japanese group, including a former Prime Minister and a former Tesla board member, is encouraging Tesla to invest in Nissan. That might sound shocking but the report says the group believes that Tesla would be interested in Nissan’s U.S. plants. However, it wasn’t long before cold water was thrown on the whole scheme. The Prime Minister said he didn’t know anything about it and the former Tesla board member said he had “absolutely no involvement” and has doubts that Tesla would even be interested in Nissan or its plants. To us, this has all the markings of a “pump and dump” scheme. Somebody floats a juicy rumor, the stock shoots up, they dump their holdings, then the stock crashes when the truth comes out, and the rumor-mongers walk off with a boatload of money.
RIVIAN CUTS COGs $31,000/VEHICLE
Rivian reported its full results for last year and it’s showing improvements. It sold over 51,000 vehicles, up 1,400 vehicles from the year before. Its revenue rose 12% to $4.9 billion. It also posted an operating loss of $4.7 billion, which was $1 billion better than in 2023. And its net loss of $4.7 billion was $686 million better. Keep in mind, Rivian still hasn’t received any of that money from Volkswagen yet, so these improvements are a direct result of Rivian doing a better job of running its business. The company says it reduced the cost of goods sold by $31,000 per vehicle in the fourth quarter. Even so, it doesn’t think it will sell more vehicles this year and still expects to post an operating loss of up to $1.9 billion.
| RIVIAN 2024 EARNINGS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Sales | 51,579 | +2.9% |
| Revenue | $4.9 Billion | +12% |
| Operating Profit | -$4.7 Billion | $1 Billion Better |
| Net Profit | -$4.7 Billion | $686 Million Better |
| Source: Rivian | ||
TESLA WARRANTY COSTS HIGHER THAN GM
Tesla is recalling 380,000 cars in the U.S. because the power steering can go out. And has already sent out an over-the-air update to fix the issue. But despite its OTA fixes, this helps highlight the fact that Tesla actually has quite high warranty costs. In its 10-K earnings report last year, Tesla listed warranty costs of over $1.4 billion. That works out to $812 per car, which is higher than General Motors, which had $759 of warranty costs per car. The things that do need to be repaired on Tesla are quite costly. Reuters reports that Tesla has had tens of thousands of cars suffer from suspension and steering parts that have failed and also had problems with computers that short circuit.
BMW NEUE KLASSE TO USE CYLINDRICAL BATTERIES
Looks like BMW’s all-new generation of EVs will probably hit the market late in the third quarter or early in the fourth quarter of this year. That’s because series production of key components like its new central control unit for the high-voltage battery kicks off in August. BMW calls the unit Energy Master since it controls the interface between the low- and high-voltage systems, the power supply to the motors and the vehicle’s electrical system as well as the operation of the battery pack. That pack is now a part of the vehicle’s structure and will be filled with new cylindrical cells, instead of prismatic like BMW used before. Those cells are also mounted directly into the pack without first being bunched up into modules, which helps clear up more space. BMW’s new EVs will get new electric motors as well. Part of that is because the electrical system is now based on an 800-volt architecture. The rear axle will feature an electrically excited synchronous motor, while an asynchronous motor will be fitted on the front for all-wheel drive models. It says the new eDrive system will improve overall EV efficiency by 20%.
STELLA TO LAUNCH L3 DRIVING
Stellantis revealed its first in-house developed hands-free driving system, called STLA AutoDrive. It’s capable of everything between Level 2 and Level 3, but while the Level 2 and 2+ system will operate at highway speeds, the Level 3 system only works up to 37 MPH or 60 km/h. However, Stellantis says that could one day go to 59 MPH or 95 km/h and that it’s also looking to adapt the system for off-roading. The company calls STLA AutoDrive a global technology, but it didn’t say exactly where it will be offered yet. Level 3 and even Level 4 are approved for use in China and the only other places we know where it’s allowed is in Germany and in the U.S. in California and Nevada. Germany recently approved Level 3 up to the 95 km/h limit, while we think the U.S. is still at 40 MPH, but looking to go to 60 MPH.
EV ADVOCATES TELL EU TO KEEP STRICT CO2 REGS
Automakers in Europe have been pressing the EU for months to rollback or ease CO2 emission rules because they claim they could face fines of €15 billion this year for missing the targets. But two groups representing EV makers, charging networks, supply chain companies and fleet owners in Europe sent letters to the EU urging it not to ease the CO2 regulations. The EV groups say that rolling back the rules will make automaker’s less competitive with Chinese EVs and it will hurt EV investment in Europe. They also dispute the €15 billion fine automakers claim they face and say it’s more likely €4-6 billion and that figure could be cut in half through pooling emissions with other companies.
STELLA STOPS JEEP COMPASS PLANT IN CANADA
Stellantis is reevaluating its plans for the next-gen Jeep Compass and as a result it’s halting all activities at its plant in Brampton, Ontario, where it is scheduled to be built. The company is currently retooling the plant to build gas and electric versions of the Compass and it’s scheduled to go into production early next year. But Stellantis released a statement saying it’s “temporarily pausing” work on the Compass and it needs to reassess its product strategy for North America. It didn’t say how long the pause will last or if it will lead to layoffs. While Stellantis says, its decision doesn’t affect previously announced investment plans in Brampton, Canadian union Unifor says the work stoppage is of “grave concern.” The union says Trump’s tariff threats are at least partially to blame for the decision.
RENAULT’S HORSE WORTH €7.4 BILLION
About two years ago Renault spun off its ICE powertrain operations into a new business called Horse. Then it got Geely and Volvo to join. And then Aramco, the giant oil company, invested in it, too. Renault says other automakers and suppliers are interested in joining and that it now has 5 R&D centers and supplies ICE powertrains to 15 customers in 130 countries. Last year Horse contributed €97 million to Renault’s operating margin, it will save Renault more than €2 billion over the rest of this decade, and Horse is reportedly worth €7.4 billion. This sounds like things are working well, and we think other automakers could study whether or not they should spin off their ICE operations.
AUTOLINE POLL ON FCEVs
We’re posting a new poll, looking for your input on the future of fuel cells? Are they really the answer for transportation? Will they only be good for certain applications, like long-haul trucking? Or are they just a pipe dream that will never come to fruition? You can find the poll in the Post tab on the Autoline Channel YouTube homepage and for those of you who watch on the Autoline website, we have the poll posted in the transcript and you can vote in the comments section. Of course, we welcome any and all comments that you want to add, and we’ll report the results on Monday.
Fuel Cell Poll
What do you think the future is for fuel cells running on hydrogen?
1. It’ll never happen
2. Maybe in a couple of decades, but not now
3. They’ll work for long-haul trucks, but not passenger vehicles
4. The future is bright, hydrogen is the answer
Place your vote in the comments below.
But that brings us to the end of today’s show. Thanks for joining us and I hope that you have a great weekend.
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Autoline’s latest poll. Let us know what you think, and we welcome any comments.
What do you think the future is for fuel cells running on hydrogen?
1. It’ll never happen
2. Maybe in a couple of decades, but not now
3. They’ll work for long-haul trucks, but not passenger vehicles
4. The future is bright, hydrogen is the answer
If there was another option I would say the best use case is a silent backup generator for buildings or large cargo ships that ship forms or H2.
Both have space to store months of H2 if needed for electron output for electric motors or to charge up batteries that eventually will be everywhere and will be future buildings primary backup generators.
YES,
3) works well for Long Haul Trucks ; not Pass Cars
I’m a 2 on the fuel cells. Until/unless there is large scale production of hydrogen by electrolyzing water, using wind, solar, and/or nuclear power, fuel cells make little sense. I don’t see that large scale H2 production happening any time soon.
Who are the suppliers of the substandard suspension and steering components Tesla uses, or do they make their own? Might they be using some parts made for a Honda Civic on a car that weighs 1000-1500 pounds more? That could result in problems.
My vote is #5, None of the above.
1. I think it will happen
2. Sooner than a couple decades if development continues
3. Will work for both if that’s what development teams work on
4. The future is well-lit, but not bright. It’s an alternative that should be utilized, but it’s not THE answer
Regarding the poll, maybe #2?
Tesla’s Semi seems to be having so much success and with the possibility of adding solid state or semi-solid state batteries to by the end of, or middle of the 2030’s, even for long haul use, I wonder if fuel cycles will be ready for prime time by then?
If im not mistaken, BMWs Neue Klasse platform(s) are supposed to supposed to support both EV and ICE vehicles. With the battery pack now being apart of the vehicle structure, what will that mean for the ICE vehicles? I guess they could just add a floor for those versions?
IMHO, EU EV advocates need to get involved with the lawmakers EV policies, on whether or not they should roll them back or not. With OEMs vehicle platforms and architectures being so globally integrated, even in areas where EV acceptance has slowed, these OEMs are still going to have to develop EVs to stay competitive around the world. So, much like diesel engines are prevalent in some markets, EVs may become much the same.
Just read the horror rstories on Motor Trend on Honda and Toyota refueling and repair.
Never, never, never for mainstream.
Norm T, what “horror rstories”?
I’m with DFord, above. Option 5. H2 has transport uses that are being explored NOW. Greencarcongress article:
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2024/04/20240409-nrel.html
Port transport, port to local destination, medium sized electrified equipment, especially indoor warehouse use. Ultimately though long-run transportation will be tied to corridors b/c of need and cost to create refueling infrastructure.
Biggest barrier is large scale production of green hydrogen (like electrolytic). Blue H2 is a cost pit and b/c of all the energy used only provides lower emission of combustion byproducts like NOx. That won’t carry it into broad use unless fuel cost is brought down substantially.
So, it’s in 10 year timeframe for limited applications, unless there is a cost breakthrough for hydrogen fuel production.
If there were broad availability of solar- or wind- driven H2 production, trains, docks, indoor, and limited transport corridor-use seems a real possibility. BUT there are multiple pre-requisites there.
For now testing vehicles on short-run and other ‘tool’ (forklift, crane, yard skid transport) is good for proving what the fuel cell + vehicle side can do well. H2 Production is the linchpin.
2. Maybe in a couple of decades, but not now
I think Dave Silva said it well. The question probably needed to be a bit more specific. I think many people on this forum would be surprised at all of the ways that fuel cells are currently being used in the US and around the world. Non-polluting forklifts in warehousing have been a home run and may be the best known application. Cellular companies use them as a much more reliable source of backup power at their towers than the diesel generators used initially. Much less maintenance and no worries about the fuel going bad or gelling. Nearly every large ship manufacturer is evaluating their use for primary propulsion or battery charging. European ferry companies have been ordering fuel cell powered units for the last several years.
When green hydrogen production is scaled and becomes cost-competitive with other fuels, the applications for fuel cells will rapidly expand. Honda, GM, Toyota, BMW and others are not spending money on continued development of this technology for no reason.
# 4. Trucks for sure & huge potential in stationary operation, agriculture, remote locations.
I think fuel cells will find a place in the market,just not sure where?
Fuel cells have been used in space ships for years, an application where cost is, essentially, no object.
2. Maybe in a couple of decades, but not now. The reason is that we would need a major breakthrough in the way hydrogen is made that would be much more efficient. Taking less than half the renewable energy it takes now to make it.
My answer is other…
The problem is sourcing hydrogen. That takes lots of energy to separate from water. There’s not enough so called “green” wind or solar to do it, and those methods aren’t as “green” as many people want to think.
The only real solution then is to build lots of new nuclear plants to create the power you need to get hydrogen for water, or you can charge EV batteries too. Then the lack of copper needed on the planet for motors, wiring, and electronics is still an issue.
Current commercial hydrogen is sourced from hydrocarbons, so doesn’t get away from them if that’s what people think they’re doing. It just wasted more energy turning hydrocarbons into hydrogen…
#4
Hopefully the EU doubles down on the stupid and holds firm on their emissions rules. Will be interesting to see if they ever waver before their OEMs start collapsing or they go for broke, literally. Good times.
$249/month lease on F-150 Lightning, with a free home charger.
https://www.thedrive.com/news/big-ford-f-150-lightning-lease-deal-lops-off-10500-and-tosses-in-home-charger
Looks like that Lightning lease offer is only available in SoCal. That is a pretty good deal I guess. But if they so desperate for sales that they have to make such a loss leader offer in the heartland of the true believers, then they must really not be able to
move these things.
To me, the craziest thing done in Europe in recent years, was Germany shutting down their nuclear power plants. Yeah, the EV mandates are not going to be achievable, but can be reversed more easily than the power plants can be restarted, if the plants are still there and not dismantled.
I’d say it’s kinda 2&3. Will likely work for large trucks but I think in a decade or so they could develop ways to get it into passenger cars. But even for semi trucks an expansive filling network would need to be created making it not really viable anytime soon. Much like EVs the filling stations are one of the biggest obstacles.