AD #4355 – Ford to Stop China Imports; Detroit 3 Losing Market Share; Another Incentive War Coming?

This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.

ACHTUNG! INCENTIVE WAR ALERT
Ever since Covid, automakers learned that if they keep inventories tight, they don’t have to offer as many incentives to move the metal. These days, in the U.S., inventory levels hover around 3 million units, down from the nearly 4 million they had before Covid hit. And incentives now average about 6.5% of the average transaction price, down from the 11% that were offered six years ago, according to Cox Automotive. But Automotive News reports that at a time when most automakers are cutting incentives, Nissan is ramping them up in a push to gain market share. It’s offering an average of $4,000 per vehicle while the industry average is about $3,000. In the second quarter, Nissan’s U.S. sales were up 10%. But there’s a danger in that. Other automakers could feel the need to follow suit, and before you know it, we’re back to an incentive war that artificially boosts sales at the same time it damages profit margins.

 

DETROIT 3 DOWN TO 37% U.S. MARKET SHARE
GM, Ford and Stellantis are losing a lot of market share in their home market. According to Stephens, Inc, the private investment firm, the D3 have lost almost two full points of market share in the last year. At the end of the second quarter they only had a little over 37% market share in the U.S. That’s a loss of 75,000 sales.

CHRYSLER PACIFICA SALES UP 81%
However, Stellantis is starting to buck the trend amongst the D3. Though it’s coming off a very low base, its sales grew 6% in the second quarter, thanks to some smart marketing moves. Everyone knows that sales of Ram pickups shot up once the Hemi V8 was added to the lineup. Ram sales are up 27% this year. But did you know that sales of the Pacifica minivan were up a staggering 81% in the second quarter? That’s thanks to a mild refresh and pricing the van more competitively with the Honda Odyssey and Toyota Siena. It’s selling so well they’re adding a 3rd shift at the Windsor assembly plant.

  

AVERAGE USED CAR $9K MORE THAN PRE-COVID
A lot has changed since Covid, including the price of used cars. They’re up significantly. According to a new study from iSeeCars, the average 3-year-old used car now costs around $32,600, which is $9,000 more than in 2019. And it’s much harder to find an affordable used car. In 2019, nearly half of 3-year-old used cars cost less than $20,000, today it’s about one in nine. You now have to shop for a 7 year old car to get one under twenty grand.

FORD TO STOP IMPORTING NAUTILUS FROM CHINA
Ford announced it’s shifting production of the Lincoln Nautilus to the U.S. from China starting in 2030. The company started building and exporting the model from China in 2024. Ford didn’t reveal what plant will build Nautilus but prior to China it was built at its plant in Oakville, Ontario. That plant also built the Edge, which the Nautilus is based on, but the Edge has been discontinued and the Oakville plant has been retooled to make other models. Lincoln currently makes the Navigator at the Kentucky Truck Plant, the Corsair at the Louisville Assembly Plant and the Aviator is made in Chicago.

EREV SALES EVAPORATING IN CHINA
Ram says it’s coming out with an EREV version of its full size pickup this year. And Ford is rumored to be working on an EREV version of the F-150. But industry experts in China think the market for extended range electrics will stop growing there completely as early as next year. The powertrain setup started seeing massive growth in 2024 as many ICE owners looked to make their move into electrification. But most EREV owners in China only run on electric power, so new customers are less willing to pay a premium for the setup. Most new applications are found on larger SUVs where range anxiety is still a concern for some buyers. As a result EREV growth slowed in 2025, then sales actually started falling this year. While the experts differ on when the segment will stop growing, they all predict it will happen before 2030, with consumers buying more pure electric vehicles. One forecast predicts BEVs could make up 80% of all NEV sales in China before the end of the decade.

MITSUBISHI EV FROM FOXCONN VIA TAIWAN
Foxtron, a joint venture between vehicle maker Yulon and tech maker Foxconn, is now contract manufacturing vehicles for Mitsubishi. In the fourth quarter of this year the ASX VR-e, a pure-electric SUV, will go on sale in New Zealand. It’s based on the Foxtron Bria, which was designed by Pininfarina, and will be built alongside that model in Taiwan. While Mitsubishi didn’t provide any specs, the Bria is available with a nearly 58 kWh battery pack and either a 230 horsepower motor that drives the rear wheels or a 400 horsepower AWD setup. No word on other potential countries for this model, but since it’s right-hand drive, other right-hand drive markets will probably follow next.

HONDA AUCTIONS OFF RACE CARS
Honda’s U.S. racing division is giving enthusiasts the chance to purchase its iconic race cars. The first car up for sale through the new HRC Heritage Racing Program is the first purpose-built Acura endurance racer, which won the LMP2 Class at the 12-hours of Sebring in 2007. It’s also the first race car and engine designed and developed by HRC in the U.S. As for restorations, HRC will also do restorations, completely tearing down and reassembling the race car with new and reconditioned parts. It will even modernize the electronics and completely rebuild the engines. Once that’s complete, HRC engineers track test the car and are also available to the new owners for support.

FORD REVIVES THE FORD TIMES, NOW ELECTRONICALLY
We think this is a great marketing move from Ford. It’s launching a new travelogue series called Ford From the Road, which is based on its old Ford Times magazine that ran from 1943 to 1993. That publication was sent out to owners from Ford dealers every month for free and it included articles on the best places to drive and visit in the U.S. At its peak in the 50s and 60s, the magazine was mailed to nearly 2 million Ford owners. Ford says the new travelogue series will pick up where Ford Times left off and will have many similar articles.

MARICK MASTERS ON AAH
We’re trying to figure out what the UAW will ask for in its next contract. And what is the union going to do about humanoid robots working on assembly lines? And what about three former UAW presidents coming out against the re-election of UAW president Shawn Fain? We’ll be getting into all that on Autoline After Hours this afternoon, when Marick Masters comes on the show. He’s one of the foremost labor experts in the country. Kalea Hall from Reuters will also be on, so join John and Gary when it all goes live at 3 pm eastern time.

But that brings us to the end of this show. Thanks for tuning in and I hope to see you later.